Many of our subscribers tell us that our
model portfolios are the main reason they
sign up. We offer five different no-load
portfolios with a wide range of
investment options. Performance figures
and current holdings are provided in our
monthly issues (on pages 6-7), and we
also give a weekly update on performance
in our hotline messages.
Getting started with one or more of
our model portfolios is straightforward.
If you have an existing account with
Fidelity, you can match the results of a
particular model portfolio simply by
holding the same mix of funds. You should
first read the prospectus for each fund,
and you'll need to calculate the dollars
that go into each fund based on the model
percentages. After that, you can simply
place the trades with Fidelity. Be aware
that in a taxable account you may incur
capital gains on any profitable positions
you sell when joining up with a model
portfolio. This is not an issue if you
plan to use a retirement account.
If you are getting started with
Fidelity for the first time, you'll need
to set up a Fidelity account and read the
prospectus for each of the funds
involved. It might be easier to start
with a money market fund (such as Cash
Reserves) and then exchange into the
model holdings once your account is
active.
Once you establish a starting
position, you'll need to check our
monthly issues for any switches. If we
make any moves, they'll be highlighted on
the front page. Exchange dates are set
near the middle of the month, which
allows time to obtain and read the
prospectus before making the switch.
Place your trades during the weekend
before the specified date in order to
move in tandem with the model portfolio.
At times you may notice that our model
mix will shift by a small percentage even
when there are no switches. This simply
reflects changes in the market value of
the funds that are held.
Following is a description of the
characteristics for each model portfolio,
along with some guidelines that can help
you decide how to allocate between them.
INCOME MODEL
Our Income Model is our least risky
portfolio and is the best choice if you want
to minimize the risk of loss in a
short-term market decline. We invest in a diversified mix of bond funds, and our goal is a long-term total
return of 7% per year. Over the 17 year
period ending 12/31/08, the Income Model
returned 4.5% per year (see chart).
Exchanges in the Income Model are made
only a few times per year, and many
trades affect only the weighting
percentages rather than the entire
position.
For VIP investors we provide an
annuity version of the Income Model in
each issue on page 6.
GROWTH & INCOME MODEL
Our Growth and Income Model is a good
match for investors wanting conservative
growth with reduced exposure to bear
markets. It's also a good choice if you
want quarterly dividends which will grow
over time, although the portfolio's
income stream alone is not as high as our
Income Model.
In this portfolio we aim to keep risk
less than two-thirds as great as the S&P 500
index. Our long-term performance goal is
10% per year, with about 3-4% expected
from the income stream and 6-7% from
capital gains. For the 15 years ending
12/31/08, the model provided an
annualized return of 6.3% (see chart).
Although our Growth and Income Model
is less risky than the S&P 500 index, the risk of short-term losses is still significant. You
should be willing to ride through a
selloff to achieve long-term growth. We
suggest a minimum investment horizon of
at least three years.
We provide a VIP version of this model
on page 6 of each monthly issue.
GROWTH MODEL
Our Growth Model aims for long-term
growth by investing in stock funds that
focus mainly on the U.S. market. We try
to keep risk similar to the S&P 500.
The model's goal is a long-term growth
rate of 13% per year. For the 22 years
ending 12/31/08, the Growth Model returned
10.1% per year (see chart).
The S&P 500's annual return for the
same period was 8.6%.
One of our guiding principles with the
Growth Model is to remain fully invested
in domestic stock funds. There are
several reasons why we don't attempt to
time the market:
Long term stocks go up. The
S&P 500 index has grown at about 10%
per year (with dividends reinvested)
since 1926, and Fidelity funds tend to
exceed the S&P 500 over any 10-year
period. You don't need to time the market
for long-term growth.
Timing the market looks simple
in hindsight, but the odds favor a fully
invested position. Stocks move up
two-thirds of the time, so a cash
position has only a 33% chance of beating
the market. Any investment approach that
frequently moves in and out of cash is
likely to lag the market over any long
period of time. Holding cash can reduce
risk, but it rarely adds to long-term
performance.
Studies have shown that perfect
fund selection produces far better
results than perfect market timing. In
the real world, this means that a
strategy which tries to pick good funds
has more opportunity than one which tries
to be in the market at the right time.
Our Growth Model concentrates on
Fidelity's domestic stock funds, the
group that benefits most from Fidelity's
extensive research capabilities. The
model picks mainly from Fidelity's domestic growth funds.
Because of the inherent risks of
investing in stock funds, you should not
follow the Growth Model unless you have a
long-term investment horizon (8 years or
more).
If you are moving into the Growth
Model from a cash position, consider
joining up over time. Divide the amount
to be invested by eight and then make
purchases once per quarter over a
two-year period. This dollar cost
averaging approach can work to your
advantage because more shares are
purchased when stock prices take a
temporary dip. In the event of a bear
market, you are able to buy at
significantly lower prices with some
portion of your investment. In today's
volatile market, dollar cost averaging
can help reduce the risks of establishing
a growth-oriented position in mutual
funds.
In order to strive for long-term
capital gains (currently taxed at a
maximum 15% Federal tax rate), we aim for
an 12-month holding period on profitable
positions. The Growth Model can also be
followed in a retirement account such as
an IRA or Keogh.
SELECT SYSTEM
The Select System is our best long-term performer. Holdings are
determined from our Volatility Model, which
compares the standard deviation of each
sector fund with its historical norm and
combines the result with trailing
12-month risk-adjusted performance. We invest in six
industry groups that we believe are poised to
outperform the S&P 500 over the next
12-18 months.
The Select System's risk level
(relative to the S&P 500) can range
from 1.0 to as high as 1.5. Our long-term
performance goal is 14% per year. Actual
performance from 12/31/88 to 12/31/08 (a
period of 20 years) was 12.2% per year,
versus 8.4% for the S&P 500 (see chart).
When following the Select System, we
suggest that you use only long-term
capital that is not needed for eight
years or more. Over the long run, the
Select System may post a higher return
than our other model portfolios
but it takes on more risk and could lose
more than our other model portfolios in a
downturn.
The Select System does not rely on a
money market position, even when bearish
conditions prevail. Our back-test results showed
that maximum long-term performance is
obtained by maintaining a fully invested
position in equity sectors, and we stick
to that approach. On average the model
will generate about 5-6 switches per
year. There is a 0.75% short-term
redemption fee on any Select fund that is
not held for at least 30 days (our model
always waits at least that long). There
is also a $7.50 fee on non-automated
exchanges.
For best results, don't mix the Select
System with other Select strategies.
Instead, dedicate a specific dollar
amount to the model. That way you won't
be tempted to second guess the model
during a temporary period of poor
performance.
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES MODEL
This model aims
to profit from turnaround situations and
other opportunities where Fidelity may
have an advantage over its peers.
We take
somewhat of a contrarian approach here -
looking for a chance to do well in places
where most investors don't appreciate the
potential for growth. We tend to run more
with investment themes in this portfolio.
The long-term
goal for the Unique Opportunities
model is 14% per year. Volatility varies,
but will generally range between 1.0 and
1.5.
Between 3/31/99
and 12/31/08 (9.75 years) the model
returned 4.1% per year, versus an annual decline of 1.9% for
the S&P 500 (see chart).
ALLOCATING
BETWEEN OUR MODELS
When deciding how to allocate your
investment among our four regular models,
there are two things to consider. The
first is your tolerance for risk, and the
second is the length of time before you
will need the money. The table below
suggests a starting point based on these
two factors.
To use this approach, first consider
your tolerance for risk. Rate yourself
Low if protecting your
portfolio against losses is a key
priority. Choose Medium if
you dont like losses but you can
accept a short-term decline to improve
your long-term return. Go with
High if you want to maximize
long-term returns and the prospect of
riding through a major bear market does
not bother you.
Next, make a rough estimate of your
living expense needs in each of the next
eight years, and subtract out what you
expect to receive in wages, social
security, and other income sources
unrelated to your investments. The result
should be an estimate of how much cash
youll need from your investment
portfolio (if you are still working or if
you have income from non-investment
sources, you may not need any money from
your investments). Finally, add up your
needs in each category to determine the
proper allocation. The total for the
first three years should be invested
according to the box on the left. The
money required in years four through
eight should be invested in the model
portfolio in the middle box. The
remaining portion of your portfolio,
which may be the entire amount for some,
is allocated to the 8 years or
more box. Here are two examples:
Mike and Lori have saved
$50,000 for their retirement which begins
in about 20 years. They consider their
risk tolerance to be high, because they
are willing to ride through a bear market
in the pursuit of maximum long-term
gains. In this case the couple could
elect to follow the lower right box and
put all their money into the Select
System.
Ron and Cathy are retired and
have savings of $800,000. Living expenses
are expected to be about $40,000 per year
over the next eight years. The couple
considers their risk tolerance to be low.
In this example the couple could put $120,000 in
the less than 3 years box,
which would be invested in a money market
fund. Another $200,000 of expenses would
land in the 3-8 years box,
which would be invested in the Income
Model. The remaining $480,000 would fall
in the 8 years or more box
and should be invested in the Growth
& Income Model. Although the income
stream alone may not cover living expense
needs, the couple can be comfortable
using some of their principal to make up
the difference, since the total draw on
the portfolio is likely to be under 5%
per year. Assuming long-term investment
growth of 7-8% per year, chances are good
the portfolio will continue to climb in
value even as it provides for living
expenses.
When using this approach you should
re-allocate your mix annually to keep
up-to-date with changes in your financial
situation. For example, as retirement
draws near your overall risk should be
reduced. This approach will do exactly
that as living expenses are recognized.
And if you rebalance when you file your
taxes, it makes for a convenient time to
sell some holdings to satisfy the tax
bill and provide for the expected
living expenses in the year ahead.