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Model Portfolio |
Typical Use |
Long- Term Return Goal |
Risk Target |
Recommended Investment Horizon |
| Income Model |
Generating income with relatively low principal risk |
8% |
0.50 |
3 years or less |
Growth and Income Model |
Balanced approach for staying ahead of inflation |
10% |
0.75 |
3 to 8 years |
| Growth Model |
Stock-oriented approach with market-level risk |
12% |
1.00 |
8 years or more |
| Select System |
Aggressive approach using sector funds |
14% |
1.25 |
8 years or more |
Unique Opportunities |
Aggressive approach using non-sector funds |
14% |
1.25 |
8 years or more |
Many of our subscribers tell us that our model portfolios are the main reason they sign up. We offer five different no-load
portfolios with a wide range of investment options. Performance figures and current holdings are provided in our monthly
issues (on pages 6-7), and we also give a weekly update on performance in our hotline messages.
Getting started with one or more of our model portfolios is straightforward. If you have an existing account with Fidelity,
you can match the results of a particular model portfolio simply by holding the same mix of funds. You should first read the
prospectus for each fund, and you'll need to calculate the dollars that go into each fund based on the model percentages. After
that, you can simply place the trades with Fidelity. Be aware that in a taxable account you may incur capital gains on any
profitable positions you sell when joining up with a model portfolio. This is not an issue if you plan to use a retirement account.
If you are getting started with Fidelity for the first time, it might be easier to start with a money market fund (such as
Cash Reserves) and then exchange into the model holdings once your account is active.
Once you establish a starting position, you'll need to check our monthly issues for any switches. If we make any moves, they'll be
highlighted on the front page. Place your trades during the weekend before the specified date in order to move in tandem with the
model portfolio. At times you may notice that our model mix will shift by a small percentage even when there are no switches. This
simply reflects changes in the market value of the funds that are held.
Following is a description of the characteristics for each model portfolio, along with some guidelines that can help you decide how
to allocate between them.
INCOME MODEL
Our Income Model is our least risky portfolio and is the best choice if you want to minimize the risk of loss in a short-term market
decline. We aim to keep risk about half as great as the S&P 500, and our goal is a long-term total return of 8% per year. Over
the 19 year period ending 12/31/10, the Income Model returned 5.5% per year (see chart).
For VIP investors we provide an annuity version of the Income Model in each issue on page 6.
GROWTH & INCOME MODEL
Our Growth and Income Model is a good match for investors wanting conservative growth with reduced exposure to bear markets. It's
also a good choice if you want quarterly dividends which will grow over time, although the portfolio's income stream alone is not
as high as our Income Model.
In this portfolio we aim to keep risk about three-quarters as great as the S&P 500 index. Our long-term performance goal is
10% per year, with about 2-3% expected from the income stream and 7-8% from capital gains. For the 17 years ending 12/31/10, the
model provided an annualized return of 7.8% (see chart).
Although our Growth and Income Model is less risky than the S&P 500 index, the risk of short-term losses is still significant.
You should be willing to ride through a selloff to achieve long-term growth. We suggest a minimum investment horizon of at least
three years.
We provide a VIP version of this model on page 6 of each monthly issue.
GROWTH MODEL
Our Growth Model aims for long-term growth by investing in stock funds that focus mainly on the U.S. market. We try to keep risk
similar to the S&P 500. The model's goal is a long-term growth rate of 12% per year. For the 24 years ending 12/31/10, the
Growth Model returned 11.2% per year (see chart). The S&P 500's annual return for the
same period was 9.6%.
One of our guiding principles with the Growth Model is to remain fully invested in domestic stock funds. There are several reasons
why we don't attempt to time the market:
Long term stocks go up. The S&P 500 index has grown at about 10% per year (with dividends reinvested) since 1926, and
Fidelity funds tend to exceed the S&P 500 over any 10-year period. You don't need to time the market for long-term growth.
Timing the market looks simple in hindsight, but the odds favor a fully invested position. Stocks move up two-thirds of the
time, so a cash position has only a 33% chance of beating the market. Any investment approach that frequently moves in and out of
cash is likely to lag the market over any long period of time. Holding cash can reduce risk, but it rarely adds to long-term
performance.
Studies have shown that perfect fund selection produces far better results than perfect market timing. In the real world, this
means that a strategy which tries to pick good funds has more opportunity than one which tries to be in the market at the right time.
Our Growth Model concentrates on Fidelity's domestic stock funds, the group that benefits most from Fidelity's extensive research
capabilities. Because of the inherent risks of investing in stock funds, you should not follow the Growth Model unless you have a
long-term investment horizon (8 years or more).
If you are moving into the Growth Model from a cash position, consider joining up over time. Divide the amount to be invested by
eight and then make purchases once per quarter over a two-year period. This dollar cost averaging approach can work
to your advantage because more shares are purchased when stock prices take a temporary dip. In the event of a bear market, you
are able to buy at significantly lower prices with some portion of your investment. In today's volatile market, dollar cost averaging
can help reduce the risks of establishing a growth-oriented position in mutual funds.
In order to strive for long-term capital gains (currently taxed at a maximum 15% Federal tax rate), we aim for an 12-month holding
period on profitable positions. The Growth Model can also be followed in a retirement account such as an IRA or Keogh.
SELECT SYSTEM
The Select System is our best long-term performer. We invest in a mix of
industry groups that we believe are poised to
outperform the S&P 500 over the next
12-18 months.
We aim for an overall risk level that's 25% greater than the S&P 500. Our long-term
performance goal is 14% per year. Actual
performance from 12/31/88 to 12/31/10 (a
period of 22 years) was 13.1% per year,
versus 9.5% for the S&P 500 (see chart).
When following the Select System, we
suggest that you use only long-term
capital that is not needed for eight
years or more. Over the long run, the
Select System may post a higher return
than our other model portfolios
but it takes on more risk and could lose
more than our other model portfolios in a
downturn.
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES MODEL
This model aims
to profit from turnaround situations and
other opportunities where Fidelity may
have an advantage over its peers.
We take
somewhat of a contrarian approach here -
looking for a chance to do well in places
where most investors don't appreciate the
potential for growth. We recommend you use only long-term capital that is not needed for eight years or more.
The long-term
goal for the Unique Opportunities
model is 14% per year. We aim for a risk level that's 25% greater than the S&P 500.
Between 3/31/99
and 12/31/10 (11.75 years) the model
returned 8.4% per year, versus 1.6% for
the S&P 500 (see chart).
ALLOCATING
BETWEEN OUR MODELS
When deciding how to allocate your
investment among our four regular models,
there are two things to consider. The
first is your tolerance for risk, and the
second is the length of time before you
will need the money. The table below
suggests a starting point based on these
two factors.
To use this approach, first consider
your tolerance for risk. Rate yourself
Low if protecting your
portfolio against losses is a key
priority. Choose Medium if
you dont like losses but you can
accept a short-term decline to improve
your long-term return. Go with
High if you want to maximize
long-term returns and the prospect of
riding through a major bear market does
not bother you.
Next, make a rough estimate of your
living expense needs in each of the next
eight years, and subtract out what you
expect to receive in wages, social
security, and other income sources
unrelated to your investments. The result
should be an estimate of how much cash
youll need from your investment
portfolio (if you are still working or if
you have income from non-investment
sources, you may not need any money from
your investments). Finally, add up your
needs in each category to determine the
proper allocation. The total for the
first three years should be invested
according to the box on the left. The
money required in years four through
eight should be invested in the model
portfolio in the middle box. The
remaining portion of your portfolio,
which may be the entire amount for some,
is allocated to the 8 years or
more box. Here are two examples:
Mike and Lori have saved
$50,000 for their retirement which begins
in about 20 years. They consider their
risk tolerance to be high, because they
are willing to ride through a bear market
in the pursuit of maximum long-term
gains. In this case the couple could
elect to follow the lower right box and
put all their money into the Select
System, or Unique Opportunities Model.
Ron and Cathy are retired and
have savings of $800,000. Living expenses
are expected to be about $40,000 per year
over the next eight years. The couple
considers their risk tolerance to be low.
In this example the couple could put $120,000 in
the less than 3 years box,
which would be invested in a money market
fund. Another $200,000 of expenses would
land in the 3-8 years box,
which would be invested in the Income
Model. The remaining $480,000 would fall
in the 8 years or more box
and should be invested in the Growth
& Income Model. Although the income
stream alone may not cover living expense
needs, the couple can be comfortable
using some of their principal to make up
the difference, since the total draw on
the portfolio is likely to be under 5%
per year. Assuming long-term investment
growth of 7-8% per year, chances are good
the portfolio will continue to climb in
value even as it provides for living
expenses.
When using this approach you should
re-allocate your mix annually to keep
up-to-date with changes in your financial
situation. For example, as retirement
draws near your overall risk should be
reduced. This approach will do exactly
that as living expenses are recognized.
And if you rebalance when you file your
taxes, it makes for a convenient time to
sell some holdings to satisfy the tax
bill and provide for the expected
living expenses in the year ahead.
| |
Years Before Money Is Spent On Living Expenses |
Less Than 3 Yrs |
3-8 Years |
8 Years or more |
Low Risk Tolerance |
Money Market |
Income Model |
Growth and Income Model
|
Medium Risk Tolerance |
Income Model |
Growth and Income Model
|
Growth Model
|
High Risk Tolerance
|
Growth and Income Model
|
Growth Model
|
Select System or Unique Opportunities
|
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